You name it, and electronics has changed it in some capacity—personal and business communications, healthcare, energy conservation, entertainment, education, photography, even voting. And there'll be no letup in its landscape-altering effect.
Coupled with its seeming omnipresence, though, are various issues that the industry must contend with: trade, environmental and intellectual property issues, the growth of China's electronics industry, India's expanding global role in information technology, and some seismic market-driven shifts in industry sectors such as telecommunications and consumer electronics.
The Yankee Group, an industry analysis company, forecasts industry-wide changes in heightened competition, much of it through globalization. But it also sees more demanding consumers, evolving technology and disruption, regulatory uncertainty, and a growing emphasis on innovation.
Management consultants at Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu see a "quiet revolution" in how technology is changing the way we live. "A typical day in 2010 is unlikely to feel much different from today," says Paul Lee, director of research of the firm's Technology, Media & Telecommunications Industry Group.
"We will probably not be teleporting breakfast or using quantum computers, nor will we be watching holographic TV or traveling to work in flying cars," Lee notes. "A lucky few may likely be flying to the edge of space. But for the rest of us, change will probably be more subtle, with advances in technology, media, and telecommunications pervading ever more deeply into our daily lives."
What will your role be during all of this change? Let's start with the big picture. The Economic Strategy Institute has already warned that America faces a $55 billion and rising trade deficit in advanced technology products. Falling revenues are forcing many U.S. telecom and other technology companies to cut back on R&D spending. "As the United States has stumbled, the rest of the world has leapt ahead," Clyde Prestowitz, one of the authors of the study, says in the report.
How will this impact high-tech jobs? The long-term picture is mixed. Despite an 11% increase in graduate applications from international students from 2005 to 2006, according to the Council of Graduate Schools, the growth follows a two-year cumulative decline of 32%. Not surprisingly, the large gains have come from China and India. But the huge numbers of engineering and computer science graduates in China and India may be seriously misleading.
A National Academy report that China is producing 600,000 new engineers a year compared with only 70,000 in the U.S. has been all but shot down by a McKinsey Global Institute report that suggests that at least half of what China claims are engineering students are, by American standards, technicians. Furthermore, the accuracy of most of the data on China's output of engineering graduates is being questioned as it comes directly from provincial governments. It's unclear whether they're all using the same definition of "engineer."
A study by Duke University also casts doubt on the numbers of engineering graduates coming out of both China and India. Much of the results of the Duke study is based on the coursework of U.S.-trained engineers compared with those of "engineers" in China and India. The report suggests that engineers in those countries may have sub-baccalaureate degrees.
U.S. job numbers
According to the American Engineering Association (AEA), the nation's largest trade association with 2500 companies representing all segments of technology, the high-tech industry added some 61,000 net jobs for a total of 5.6 million in the United States in 2005.
"Tech industry employment only grew 1% last year compared to 2% for the U.S. private sector as a whole," says William T. Archey, president and CEO of the AEA. "To promote the creation of high-paying technology jobs for the future, we need to address the competitiveness issues facing our country today."
The picture becomes more complicated at the regional level. The AEA says that while California's tech industry overall lost 10,600 net jobs in 2004, this was down considerably from the 67,800 jobs lost in 2003. The tech industry in San Jose/Silicon Valley lost a net 10,500 jobs. Other high-tech centers in California gained jobs, but in much smaller numbers.
Reprints
