Ever Googled the term “robotics”? The only major company and product that show up in the top 100 hits are Microsoft and its Robotics Studio, a development tool that leaves a lot to be desired. (Not one of the dozen or so folks interviewed for this article uses it.) In fact, most of the search results include news, collegiate research, education, and events.
Yet in 2006, Korea’s Ministry of Commerce, Industry, and Energy predicted the global intelligent robotics market would reap nearly $90 billion by 2015 (up from a couple billion in 2005) with a growth rate of 57%1. A more recent study conducted in January by ABI research (www.abiresearch.com) indicates that the personal robotics market (including toy robots like Sony’s Aibo and task-based robots like the iRobot’s Roomba) will reach $15 billion by 20152.
Now if that’s not exciting enough for potential entrepreneurs, two things stand out as absolute truths when it comes to the technologies that enable robotics. First, many experts say that there will indeed be a robot (think humanoid, not a glorified vacuum) in every home one day. Second, the missing elephants in the room are already planning their rendezvous to capture what should amount to billions in revenues.
That’s right. The Microsofts and Intels of the world are looking at the future and trying to make sure their lunch hooks are in the kitchen ahead of time, eagerly planning to snatch whatever morsel becomes available by assimilating robot technologies into “the collective.”
No mere mortal company can beat the established semiconductor and software giants in place now. But what if you want to start a company in robotics with only one exit strategy: join the gang after it throws some dough in your general direction? What technologies that empower robotics should you focus on to get noticed by the big bosses—and not wind up getting stomped into submission?
Most experts would agree that four viable technologies and research areas would be good starting points: cheap sensors, a solid application programming interface (API), inexpensive kits, and artificial intelligence. “Let’s say we have a mobile, safe, intelligent robot for personal use. But if the cost is $100,000, would anyone buy it? The cost of the electromechanical components used in a robot is still very expensive [with respect to] sensors, actuators, etc.,” says Dennis Hong, director of the Robotics & Mechanisms Laboratory (RoMeLa) at Virginia Tech.
“We have seen this in the early ’70s with the personal- computer revolution,” adds Hong. “Unless the component costs drops down, personal robotics as a business won’t be able to succeed. iRobot’s Roomba is probably the only success story I can think of.”
SENSIBLY PRICED SENSORS
Unless you’re working on an R&D team for a major corporation or university, you probably get nauseous just thinking about the price of some of the sensors required for many robotics applications, especially if they require one or more laser-based sensors. Mobility is one of the primary driving factors.
“Field robots (outdoor robots) need to go over rocks, hills, bumps, across bushes, etc., for them to be useful (bomb disposal, search and rescue, scientific exploration). If it cannot reach its goal, it’s no use. For personal robots (home, indoor use), even though the environment is more structured, it still needs to climb steps, etc.,” says Hong.
“The [robotics] industry needs real-world robust sensors that are affordable,” says Dave Barrett, an Olin College associate professor of mechanical engineering and director of the school’s Senior Consulting Program for Engineering (SCOPE).
This comes as no surprise if we look at last year’s DARPA Urban Challenge. Driverless cars used robotic technologies to travel 60 miles in six hours or less on an urban course while obeying traffic regulations and dealing with other traffic and obstacles. Seven of the 11 finalists used Velodyne HDL-64E light detection and ranging (LIDAR) sensors, costing around $75,000 each (Fig. 1).
However, sensors like these may be required if the auto industry is to move forward with building cars that drive themselves, saving around half of the nearly 42,000 lives per year lost to traffic accidents that are caused by human error, according to a statement made at January’s International Consumer Electronics Show by Sebastian Thrun, co-leader of the Stanford University team that placed second in the 2007 DARPA Urban Challenge.
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