Lots of companies are looking for the killer app in the wireless world. But wireless is the killer app. Despite the bleak economy, wireless developments and adoptions will flow— though at a slower pace.
CELL PHONES • The core trend of completing the installation of 3G cell-phone capability remains on target. Companies like AT&T and Verizon already have most of their main sites 3G-capable, deployed with HSPA technology. Sprint is still working on it and T-Mobile is getting going, though the downturn will slow that rollout. With handset saturation in the U.S., operators are anxious to get their 3G data capability in place to take advantage of the latest smart phones and boost revenue with new data services.
However, serious delays are expected in the installation of Long Term Evolution (LTE), the 4G technology adopted by most of the world’s carriers. The standard itself is expected to be finalized in 2009. With most major vendors already designing LTE equipment, and LTE handsets in the works, functioning systems were expected in 2010. With the downturn, it will most likely move out a year or so.
That may be good news to carriers, as they will get a better return on their 3G investments by extending their life a few more years. Some companies actually say the more advanced 3G technologies like HSPA+ are so impressive that LTE may not be needed for a long while.
There will be less growth for handsets, though. Consulting firm Ovum expects mobile connections and revenues to rise only 6.3% in 2009. Others project new wireless subscribers to drop to about 7%, which is less than the two-digit growth of the past few years.
Nonetheless, the smart phone will continue its penetration. Currently, smart phones number about 26 million units, or about 16% of recent mobile handset acquisitions in the U.S. A steady stream of new models like the HTC Google Android G1 are arriving. The Sony Ericsson Xperia X1 and the Samsung Instinct also will give the Apple iPhone and RIM BlackBerry models some competition. Look for increased penetration into the replacement market.
Applications like mobile search, Internet access, and location-based services will move forward, but moderately. Mobile TV will be delayed, though there’s some progress toward a version of the U.S. ATSC standard, which can be received by cell phones equipped with an appropriate tuner. Machine-to-machine (M2M) cellular applications will also make steady progress. The applications use the cellular system to monitor and control remote items. For example, M2M is widely deployed in interstate trucking companies and is increasingly being deployed in industrial applications for sensor monitoring and even remote control. Home uses include security like video cameras that can be called up and monitored on cell phones worldwide.
M2M hasn’t had the visibility of other more glamorous applications like mobile TV, but it’s seen solid growth. Older, slower data technologies like GPRS and 1xRTT are fast enough for most applications. ABI Research estimates that 95 million M2M modules will ship in 2013, representing a significant ramp up. About 34 million of those modules are expected to go into telematics (vehicular use) and 39 million modules into telemetry (monitor and control).
GPS will see greater use in smart phones. Most have it now, and more handsets will add it in the coming years. This should fuel the location-based services (LBS) market, which is still trying to emerge. Most LBS efforts have centered around E911 requirements, but that’s changing as E911 becomes fully implemented.
The femtocell is just about ready to hit the big time, but economics again may delay deployment. These miniature home basestations with backhaul through the consumer’s high-speed broadband connections promise not only better at-home cellular service, but also a competitive option to other broadband wireless technologies.
While all wireless operators are testing femtocells, the decision to deploy is still up in the air. How many subscribers have bad service at home anyway, and will the carriers admit that and then charge the subscriber for femto service? The lack of a broadband connection at home will also slow adoption. Finally, can the carriers and femto manufacturers make units that will not interfere with the in-place macro and micro cells?
Despite the downturn, carriers are expected to continue upgrading their backhaul networks. Up to now, most cell site backhaul has been via multiple T1/E1 lines. With the surge in mobile data applications and video, the backhaul systems are maxed out in many areas.
The solution is to replace the T1/E1 nets with IP/Ethernet connections with 10G fiber. Carrier Ethernet is emerging as a great solution where it can be deployed. Microwave Ethernet connections are also being deployed where fiber isn’t a favorable option. The good news economically is that standard Ethernet connections and equipment are affordable.
Finally, the movement to a more open architecture for phones and networks will continue. This means more opportunities for subscribers to select and use the phone they want instead of the carrier’s choices. It also means more third-party software, applications, and services outside those offered by the carrier.
Apple started this movement, but it’s spreading. Both AT&T and Verizon, the largest of the carriers, are moving in this direction.
WI-FI • Now into its twelfth year, Wi-Fi is the most stable and reliable wireless networking technology around. Many companies will begin upgrading to the faster and more secure 802.11n technology, which should finally be ratified this year. In the meantime, the Wi-Fi Alliance approved testing and certification of Draft 2.0 version of the standard.
Continue to page 2
Reprints
