Politics and the economy aside (an impossibility in reality), the near- and long-term future of the electronics industry looks pretty good. In general, the outlook for virtually all major industry sectors is healthy from a fiscal standpoint. But with EE unemployment dangling at near record levels, the picture isn't all that rosy.
Even management is taking a beating. A recent survey of executive recruiters by ExecuNet, an executive-level job and networking resource, showed that electronics ranked ninth in January on the company's list of fastest growing industries for job growth. Yet when recruiters were asked about the industries expected to generate the most job growth during the second quarter of this year, electronics dropped completely off its Top 10 list. But the employment picture could improve somewhat over the next several months as companies race to meet new product development and introduction requirements.
If there's one bright spot in EE employment opportunities, it shines within the defense/aerospace sector (see "Outsourcing: How Safe Is Your Job?" Electronic Design, May 10, p. 48). Virtually all major military platform companies are recruiting, as are most of their key subcontractors. The tricky issue here is that lots of these jobs require a security clearance that many engineers either don't have or gave up in recent years when moving to wireless or dot-com organizations.
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New job postings by these companies fall into line with recent market projections by the Government Electronics and Information Association, an affiliate of the Electronic Industries Association (EIA). The GEIA expects that the electronics content alone of Pentagon acquisitions will climb from $77 billion in fiscal year 2004 to $92 billion in FY2014. Much of that will go to so-called "black programs" (hence, the need for lots of new hires with security clearances). But a sizable chunk of the budget is earmarked for the general electronics and communications category.
Specializing in tracking military markets, the Teal Group sees a strong demand for new combat aircraft as well. This research company expects the Depart-ment of Defense to acquire nearly 3000 new aircraft valued at more than $142 billion between 2004 and 2013. There also is growing interest within the Pent-agon in developing new types of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs).
Homeland security represents another big opportunity. Here, the emphasis will be on wireless solutions to connect first responders, biometric technologies for identification and authentification, targeting systems, risk analysis management, and data sharing and collaboration tools.
PC DEMAND
Looking to the overall health of the market, the PC is a key area that has seen the highs and lows. PCs have been experiencing higher demand for some time because they're well into an upgrade cycle, pulling peripherals along with them. There doesn't seem to be any slowdown either, with what industry analysts at Gartner Inc. call the "long-awaited corporate PC replacement cycle."
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Even the recently battered telecommunications sector is showing a modest rebound, with the Telecommunications Industry Association (TIA) projecting spending for equipment in this sector at $183 billion in 2007, up 6.4% in compound annual rate from 2003. Wireless equipment sales overall, according to the TIA, will climb from $22.1 billion last year to at least $26.3 billion in 2007, with most of the activity in new chips, smart phones, and Wi-Fi. Forward Concepts, the DSP-focused market research group, says it doesn't expect the wireless local-area network (WLAN) chip market to slow down much any time soon. WLANs grew 175% in 2003.
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New applications, such as wireless Internet access, text messaging, instant messaging, wireless games, multimedia messaging services, and the start of 3G deployment in the U.S., will likely help drive the telecom market too. If so, these sectors could create a bunch of new job opportunities for design engineers.
Consumer electronics shipments, fueled by a dizzying array of new product choices, should come in at record levels this year—just under $100 billion—and could easily top that mark next year. Just about everyone owns a PC, a DVD player, and a cell phone. Now, the new "must have" is a flat-screen LCD or plasma TV receiver. Also popular are the more affordable rear-projection sets. Shipment revenues for digital TV grew an impressive 41% in 2003, and the Consumer Electronics Association (CEA) expects revenues for DTVs to jump at least another 33% in 2004, reaching almost $8 billion.
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With the growing popularity of cell phones equipped with digital cameras, sales for digital cameras were forecast to increase only 6% last year. However, sales actually climbed 22% to $4.2 billion in revenue. Digital-camera unit sales will continue to increase as product offerings expand and prices continue to drop. Plus, with several new online music services and products, the CEA estimates that MP3 device sales will top $700 million this year, helped along by a declining average unit selling price.
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