ISSUE DATE: JANUARY 11, 2007 OPTIONS
2007 Technology Forecast


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January 11, 2007 - In This Issue

[Technology Report]
Get Sharper Pictures And Lower Prices In 2007
The hottest new displays are everywhere, from desktop computers to supermarket aisles to home theaters to cell phones. And this year, their growth will only continue—particularly high-brightness LED displays and organic LED (OLED) displays—due to increases in performance and decreases in cost. Flat-panel TV prices using LCDs and plasma-display panels (PDPs) continue to fall thanks to an ongoing capacity expansion by top-tier flat-panel display (FPD) makers like Samsung,...  — Roger Allan

[Technology Report]
To Build More, Buy More Boards And Tools
Unless you're building applications completely from scratch, the climate within the embedded sector couldn't be any better. Off-the-shelf hardwareand software based on cutting-edge technologies like PCI Express, VPX, and Eclipse are available from a plethora of vendors. Building on the work of others cuts time-to-market, increases functionality, and reduces costs. Lower-Cost Tools Also Deliver Faster Development More integration and lower costs...  — William Wong

[Technology Report]
Energy-Hungry IT Centers See Hope In Digital Power
There's a new opportunity to design added-value power supplies and chips that help data centers conserve electrical power. The problems that IT managers face today are nothing less than monumental. Consider a historical analogy. Aluminum Smelters And Data Centers Bonneville Dam, present capacity 1.05 GW, began generating energy in May 1938 (...  — Don Tuite

[Technology Report]
Down Come The Walls Between Software And Hardware Design
It's becoming increasingly obvious: As 2007 begins, the prevailing paradigm in design is that software is king. Sure, state-of-the-art hardware is a must. But with market windows shrinking, there's no longer wiggle room to wait around for hardware prototypes to check out new firmware and drivers. We're entering the era of platform design, in which hardware modeling must begin at levels of abstraction higher than the register-transfer level (RTL). There are strong signs that...  — David Maliniak

[Technology Report]
DSPs Here, There, And Everywhere
Applications ranging from multimedia distribution to power and motor controlare looking to digital signal processors (DSPs)and digital signal controllers (DSCs) for optimal solutions now more than ever. The high end now trends toward multiple cores, while the low end sports microcontroller peripheral sets. DSP farms continue to escalate in size and power, and standalone chips complete with network protocol stacks tackle CPU chores. DSPs Turning Microcontroller Standard...  — William Wong

[Technology Report]
Oh, Those Money-Making Microcontrollers
Multicore, virtualization, and lots of little microcontroller chips are in the tea leaves this year. New technologies like Serial ATA (SATA) and PCI Express will materialize onto more chips and slowly move down the food chain. Continually dwindling transistor sizes will transform new processors and microcontrollers, adding intelligence to peripherals and hardware acceleration. They also will boost functionality and drop costs. In addition, more circuitry has produced a...  — William Wong

[Technology Report]
ASIC/ASSP Industry Faces Midlife Crisis
Middle age takes its toll, be it animate or inanimate. The "application-specific" industry, regarding both ICs and standard products, is no exception. Don't expect any sporty red convertibles, though. Tough times await as customers expect better performance for the same prices. ASICs will need to change their ways to survive, with designers taking preventative measures in the form of up-front designfor-manufacturing (DFM) rules. Meanwhile, analysts are calling for new value...  — Daniel Harris

[Technology Report]
PXI And LXI Set The Table For A Tasty Test Buffet
With today's tighter customer deadlines and ruthlessly competitive industry, designers can't delay in getting their products to market. Fortunately, new testing options are accelerating the process. The PXI modular instruments and the new LXI instruments let engineers assemble economical test systems optimized for their needs. But don't let that similar "XI" ending fool you. These instruments aren't necessarily competitive. Actually, they're different systems that address different...  — Louis E. Frenzel

[Technology Report]
It's Not Just A Matter Of Size For Components
Compactness and efficiency. Greater functionality at lower costs. These features—mainstays of the component world—are possible thanks to a steady stream of improved materials and manufacturing methods. Displays for large-screen TVs, outdoor signs, and high-definition TV (HDTV) home theaters have set record diagonal sizes, a trend that isn't slowing. Cell phones and other handheld devices are experiencing similarly significant display developments. Yet as prices drop to...  — Roger Allan

[Technology Report]
FPGAs, Structured ASICs Bring Home The Bacon
FPGAs and structured ASICs are like Baby Boomers. They continue to look for ways to improve their position in life while reaping nice raises every year (in the form of revenue boosts). They're also more liberal than their elders. And, they continue to try to leave a mark on society. The main difference is that FPGAs and structured ASICs aren't looking to retire anytime soon. On the contrary, FPGAs and structured ASICs look to expand in markets like automobile infotainment. There's...  — Daniel Harris

[Technology Report]
DFM Remains The Elephant In The Room
With 65-nm processes going mainstream, designers will soon turn their attention to the 45-nm process node. And if you think 65 nm was tough to contend with in the fab, the 45-nm plateau opens the door to even uglier possibilities—trashing yields and turning ever-so-painstakingly crafted layouts into something resembling oatmeal running down a wall. In 2007, it'll be imperative for designers to embrace technology to address parametric yield. Statistical static timing analysis,...  — David Maliniak

[Technology Report]
DSL Rules Broadband For Now
By far, the most widely used broadband technology to access the Internet around the world today is DSL. Over 70% of broadband connections in Japan and Korea are DSL, while penetration in Europe is approximately 60%. In the U.S., cable TV companies dominate broadband. But DSL isn't far behind, with about 46% of total connections. In fact, DSL growth is estimated at 15% to 20% annually, so it's expected to pass cable TV sometime this year as the dominant broadband technology in the...  — Louis E. Frenzel

[Technology Report]
3G May Be Here, But 4G Is On Its Way
We've been waiting for 3G cell phones for so long, most of us have forgotten what we were waiting for. Now the wait is finally over, but we still aren't seeing many handsets. Many carriers don't refer to 3G cell phones as 3G. As a result, most subscribers don't even know what it is. Average cell-phone users couldn't tell if they have a 2G, 2.5G, or 3G phone. In fact, they probably don't even know if they're using GSM, cdma2000, WCDMA, or whatever. But they do know who their carrier...  — Louis E. Frenzel

[Technology Report]
Specialized Data Converters Move Up The Signal Chain
Over the last several years, we've seen ICs wrap lots of applicationspecific functionality around a mixed-signal core, ultimately creating a canned solution for consumer-products OEMs. Expect more of the same this year. For example, there's Wolfson Microelectronics' WM8781 (see "Digital TV, Audio Boost Analog/Mixed-Signal." This high-input-voltage, 24-bit, sigma-delta analog-to-digital converter (ADC)...  — Don Tuite

[Technology Report]
Energy Star Mandates Power-Efficient PCs
In reaction to the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) recently announced Energy Star 4.0 guidelines, power efficiency has become the dominant issue within powermanagement design. Hewlett-Packard will offer 80% efficient power supplies as an option for the recently introduced HP Compaq dc7700, dc5700, and dc5750 series desktop business PCs this month. Not only that, the optional supplies let HP meet the Energy Star guidelines six months before they take effect. The most...  — Sam Davis

[Technology Report]
Single-Cell Li-Ion Systems Spawn Compatible ICs
For many handhelds, lithium-ion (Li-ion) batteries have become the power source of choice. In response, IC manufacturers are developing devices that operate properly using the normal output voltage of these batteries. In other words, the nominal Li-ion output of 4.2 V will drop down as low as about 3 V as it's used. An IC then should be able to work with an input voltage of at least 3 to 5 V so it can accommodate a single Li-ion cell. National Semiconductor's LM3671 step-down...  — Sam Davis

[Technology Report]
The Wait Is Over For High-Speed Serial Interfaces
Without a doubt, standardsbased hardware will be easier to apply this year. Last year's prototypes for the likes of VPX and EPIC Express will turn out in real products for use in production, providing access to high-speed interfaces like PCI Express, Serial RapidIO, InfiniBand, and Serial ATA. Even SAS (Serial Attached SCSI) products will be available in bulk. Coupled with this bounty, though, come heat and security challenges that will be more difficult to handle than ever before. ...  — William Wong

[Technology Report]
Software Attempts To Match The Multicore/Cluster Blitz
Don't blink. As embedded hardware continues its rush toward more cores, giant clusters, video cell phones, and multimedia players, software developers turn to more third-party software and improved tools to keep pace. And programming paradigm shifts continue to move along at a glacial clip. Still, adoption of more middleware won't just be acceptable—it will be required. Communication platforms such as the Object Management Group's data distribution services (DDS) and...  — William Wong

[Technology Report]
Switch Fabrics Get Scalable
It's raining board interconnect switch fabrics. Or so it seems, with last year's experimentation and development leading to a flood of deployments and new products. We're seeing clusters switch gears, going from dozens and hundreds of nodes to thousands and tens of thousands of nodes. Fabrics overcome many of the problems associated with buses, including scalability, reliability, and performance. It's relatively new technology, but the need for speed is pushing its...  — William Wong

[Technology Report]
Fast, Quick, Speedy... It's All A Comm Game
Higher data rates remain the holy grail of communications and networking, with lower power consumption running just behind as a revered prize. And, what we're seeing in the chase for more performance using less power is the prominent role played by Ethernet. 10GE On The Move Even though it's been available for years, 10-Gigabit Ethernet (10GE) is finally rolling out. Less expensive optical transceivers and other components are making the transition...  — Louis E. Frenzel

[Technology Report]
Fresh Applications Breed New Amplifiers
Interesting new applications continue to emerge within the world of amplifiers. In some cases, the applications themselves are novel. In others, the combination of applications and their influence on architecture constitutes the story. Sometimes, the application provides unexpected insight into consumer behavior. For reasons of battery life, efficient Class D amplifiers are squeezing their way into cell phones, particularly as mobile phones become repositories for downloaded music...  — Don Tuite

[Technology Report]
Analog Firms Must Take A Global Stance
As much as we'd like to think engineering is all about innovation, the essence of the profession often comes down to answering three questions: Who is the customer, what does it want, and how am I going to do it? As a result, interactions between designers and customers tend to define our goals and tasks. OEMs, IDMs, And IDHs, Oh My! Consumer products dominate today's analog/mixed-signal chip market, and most of the customers are Asian...  — Don Tuite

[Technology Report]
Sign Of The Times: Digital Lanes Merge Ahead
According to the Chinese calendar, it's the Year of the Boar. But 2007 promises not to be boring as great changes lie ahead in the digital space, driven by one underlying theme: If you can't beat 'em, join 'em. ASIC and ASSP vendors will merge or work on technology jointly. Foundries will merge or share resources. FPGAs and DSPs are merging more system components, while intellectual-property (IP) providers look to merge functionality to make killer functions, especially in...  — Daniel Harris

[Technology Report]
10 Trends Keep Wireless T&M Vendors On Their Toes
Wireless and RF test equipment and systems are strong growth segments in the test and measurement (T&M) industry. But for wireless designers and production professionals, it's still a work in progress. T&M equipment companies do a good job of staying on top of demand. Still, they face mounting pressures to produce even more accurate and faster systems. Here's a look at 10 factors that keep wireless T&M vendors on their toes to meet today's testing demands. ...  — Louis E. Frenzel

[Technology Report]
R&D In T&M Leads To New I&T—Innovation & Technology
Test-and-measurement challenges seem to intensify every year—faster circuits, larger ICs, new standards, increased complexity, shorter time-to-market, and, perhaps most importantly, shrinking margins. Never fear, though, because the T&M industry continually rises to the occasion by delivering advanced instrumentation that prunes away at these potentially thorny issues. The guys who design the latest test equipment hang out on the leading edge of engineering. But what do...  — Louis E. Frenzel

[Technology Report]
Complexity Woes Need An Abstraction Reaction
The future of both design and verification is looking up—in an abstract way. The complexity of both the hardware and software will compel designers of complex systems-on-a-chip (SoCs) targeting 90- or 65-nm processes to move into the electronic system-level (ESL) domain—that is, if it hasn't already. In 2007, many more design teams will leave the safe and familiar harbor of the register-transfer level (RTL) and begin the design process at a higher level of abstraction....  — David Maliniak

[Technology Report]
Mainstream Magnetic Storage Gets The Boot
Picture two CEOs sitting next to one another on an airplane—in first class, of course. Both power up their laptops with the same version of Microsoft Windows at the same time. Yet one CEO is up and running in seconds, while the other sits and ponders the nature of the universe, waiting several minutes to complete the “booting ritual.” Did one CEO only appear to “cold” boot while really recovering from standby mode? Nope. Instead, the first CEO booted...  — Daniel Harris

[Technology Report]
Digital Video Peaks As CRTs Continue Downslide
Most people couldn’t care less about high-definition television (HDTV) and other advances in digital video technologies. In fact, one in four people think they have HDTV when they really only have one or two of the four components necessary for true HDTV: HD signal, HD TV set, HD receiver, and HD antenna or dish (unless, of course, you have cable). For other people, though, HDTV is long overdue. I’ve owned an HDTV for several years now, but I didn’t bother with the...  — Daniel Harris

[Technology Report]
Short-Range Wireless Needs Long-Range Plans
Try to remember what the booming short-range wireless technologies were 10 years ago. Nothing comes to mind except for garage-door openers, CB, and a few ISM (industrial-scientific-medical) radios. Since then, a deluge of short-range wireless technologies has descended on the masses. Developments went from a yawn to hyperfrantic information overload. And there’s no stopping them, with short-range wireless devices now embedded in almost every electronic product. Bluetooth and...  — Louis E. Frenzel

[Technology Report]
3D Methods Push The "Thin Is In" Craze
More than three decades ago, Moore's Law predicted IC development would one day come to a halt, since the fundamental laws of physics would keep chips from shrinking any further. Though that prognostication hasn't come true yet, two surprising factors previously not considered are throwing up roadblocks to further breakthroughs—packaging and interconnects. Both have been driving IC process, assembly, and form factor developments, enabling designers to scale down chip...  — Roger Allan

[Editorial]
Cell-Phone Happy Meals Aren't As "Blue Sky" As You May Think
Our mission is to keep you on the leading edge of new commercially available technologies, not the "bleeding edge." Still, it's valuable and fun to look at what's coming down the pike. Our annual Technology Forecast offers you the one-year horizon of our editors' views of the upcoming technologies that will have the most impact on your work in the next design cycle. I hope you'll agree that this Technology Forecast issue is one your most valuable reads of the year, keeping you at the front...  — Mark David

[Pease Porridge]
What's All This GetHuman Stuff, Anyhow?
We ordered a new refrigerator from Sears to replace our sick, dying 30-yearold icebox, and it was supposed to be delivered on December 7. The Sears salesman told us that we'd get a phone call about delivery on December 6. When Sears called, the operator said it would be delivered the next day between 10 a.m. and noon. But the next morning, another operator called to say the refrigerator hadn't (magically?) arrived from the manufacturer, so we should wait a day or two. So much for...  — Bob Pease

[Design FAQs]
Synchronous Rectifiers
Sponsored by:
INTERNATIONAL RECTIFIER
What is a synchronous rectifier? A synchronous rectifier is a circuit that emulates a diode, allowing current to pass in one direction but not the other without the losses associated with junction or Schottky devices. The circuit comprises a pass-element (most often a power MOSFET), a sense element, a sense-signal conditioner, and a driver. How does a synchronous rectifier work? There are two broad techniques to implement the...  — Sam Davis





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