As practical design sizes shrink toward 90 nm, de Geus says that automatic avoidance of signal-integrity issues, assertion-driven verification, very automated design for test, and systematic design reuse must be mastered to have a chance of completing chips that work on time. According to de Geus, increased design complexities and massively growing capital costs require tighter integration of the semiconductor value chain (designers, fabs, integrated device manufacturers (IDMs), intellectual-property (IP) providers, and EDA). "EDA is unique in this equation in that we connect to all other parties in the flow," he says. Complexity is a major issue, de Geus adds, requiring a smarter approach.
Moving forward, Rodgers points out that design and manufacturing will become the limiting factor for the semiconductor industry. "As mask sets escalate beyond the million-dollar mark, startups and smaller companies will find the barriers to entry much more formidable than larger, more established companies," he notes. The cost, he says, will be compounded by reworks, which will increase due to the more exacting simulation requirements of 0.13-micron and below technologies. At the same time, Rodgers expects the cost of simulation to escalate. "With over 40 simulation software packages presently in use, half of our design costs are now nonsalary expenses," he says.
Fiddler's take is that software and hardware are getting significantly more complex. "You have to move up the integration chain," he says. New devices, he continues, "can do so much more that you have to produce much more software for them. We have to provide literally orders of magnitude more lines of code now, and that will continue."
Despite today's market conditions and sketchy projections, these executives at least plan to be as entrepreneurial as ever, if not more so. "Maxim will always be an entrepreneurial company," says Gifford. "To win, we think it's essential to be entrepreneurial." According to Gifford, the company needs to be lithe and quick to respond to new technologies and changing customer requirements. "Our entire attention is focused on being useful and valuable to our customer—the professional engineer."
To position itself for the future, Linear Technology has increased its circuit design engineering staff by 16%. It also closed its oldest wafer fabrication plant while completing a two-year project of bringing online a new, more efficient, and more advanced analog wafer fab facility. In addition, the company reduced the number of process engineers working on new process development activities and cut the number of independent sales reps selling its products. It has moved to a direct sales force for the U.S. market and increased its sales activities in China. Moreover, in the past year, Linear opened a new design center in Burlington, Vt., expanding its design facility in the Boston area by 50%. "Even though the market has contracted significantly and the near-term outlook is less than clear," Swanson says, "LTC didn't cut back on investments. We accelerated them."
"We are always on the lookout for dislocations and new opportunities," says T.J. Rodgers. "Tough times require you to be more selective, but they also provide advantages to companies that are well prepared." For Synopsys, de Geus says, the recent merger with Avant and the acquisitions of inSilicon and Co-Design Automation are all moves that support one objective—to provide the best, lowest-risk, complete IC design solution.
As for new and developing trends, Stata believes that signal processing will be foremost, especially in communications and computers. "These industries will migrate from electrons to photons to realize higher speeds and greater communications capacity that are better by orders of magnitude. Despite the current malaise of telecommunications visionaries, photonics represents the next frontier for innovation and business development for the semiconductor industry," he says.
Gifford thinks that wireless local-area networks, the gigabit Ethernet, and 3G wireless phones will be important. "What has changed is some of the hype, or unrealistic expectations, for the ramp up and near-term adoption of some of these technologies," he says. He also expects desktop PC sales to decline until consumers have a compelling reason to replace them. "Convenience, through portability and integrated functions, will continue to be important, both to businesses and individuals," he adds.
Swanson looks for more portable product opportunities. "Lower power, less voltage, higher density, a smaller-solution footprint, and increased speed are the trends gaining momentum," he says.
Although these eight leaders offer different viewpoints, they share the same common vision of unshakable confidence in the electronics industry today and tomorrow.