3G Takes Charge But 4G Looms Large

The project got started okay, but two things happened. First, the 802.16 group decided to do its own mobile version, given its success in building the fixed version of WiMAX. And, it did establish and ratify that mobile standard in 2005. Second, the 802.20 group got bogged down with internal politics, company battles, irregularities, and a whole host of other problems. In 2006, the IEEE shut the group down and re-established it with new leadership. It's back on track now, but far from delivering a finished standard.

When it does become available, will it be too little too late? Mobile WiMAX delivers those basic goals now, as do 3G services. So while 802.20 is back on track, it doesn't appear to be in this competitive mix unless it delivers some feature or benefit that the other services can't. It may become a niche player in that case, for example, supplying broadband wireless to high-speed trains.

• Mobile TV: Mobile IPTV represents some indirect competition. Most TV that will appear on cell phones won't come via the cell-phone network, but rather from separate TV stations set up to serve this market. Handset manufacturers are building a separate TV receiver chip into the phone. AT&T and Verizon have already adopted Qualcomm's MediaFLO here in the U.S., and stations are being constructed. The DVB-H standard was adopted in Europe, with stations also coming online.

Taking the video away from the carriers means just one more service that won't require 3G or 4G speeds. But carriers aren't up in arms over this, given that any heavy video usage over the network will overwhelm it and potentially destroy the reliability of the lucrative voice service.

Should you get a 3G phone now? If you want the latest speed and features, by all means, get one. Don't wait for 4G, which is a long way off. Besides, when the two-year plan on your 3G phone runs out, it should be just in time for a new 4G phone.