There was a time when children could convince their parents they needed a cell phone because wherever they were, they would always be just a phone call away. It's hard for a teenager to use that excuse now.
Today's cell phones are as much portable entertainment devices as they are phones. So many models boast MP3 players, games, cameras, and even video, some experts say we soon will spend as much as 80% of the time using our phones for entertainment.
This isn't necessarily a bad thing. It makes some sense to combine applications, especially popular items like MP3 players, with cell phones. One thing's for sure, though. Whether we want it or not, we're going to get it anyway.
THE ENTERTAINMENT TRIAD: AUDIO, GAMES, VIDEO
Audio already is well entrenched in cell phones from Motorola, Nokia, Samsung, and other companies. Most contain an MP3 player with flash memory and can store from about 50 to 100 songs. Hard-drive models can store thousands of songs. Most of these music cell phones get their downloads from their PC.
Now, Sprint Nextel offers songs for sale directly online. At $1.99 per song, this is expensive music, given Apple's iTunes $0.99 price. But some users want the convenience of getting their music here and now. Since MP3 players and music are such hot markets, this will continue to be a valuable niche for cell phones. Perhaps the biggest development would be an Apple iPod cell phone. With Apple's continued consumer leanings, don't be surprised.
As for games, most cell phones come with a few, but they're simple and boring, and not many people play them. More interesting games, however, could attract more attention, especially from the younger market. Yet because of the small screens and limited controls, cell phones are far from the ideal platform. Expect the market to turn to more exotic games, though, as video arrives with bigger and higher-resolution screens. PCbased games don't translate well to phones, so look for a new market involving video games optimized for small color screens and limited control options.
The ultimate entertainment media is still video. While almost everyone will tell you it's silly to contemplate TV on a cell phone, that's exactly where we're headed. With its limited resolution and download speeds that force video into a slower 12- to 15-frame-per-second (fps) mode, the small screen makes for crummy video.
Just as consumers were upset with snowy and distorted pictures on their TV sets, they will be just as picky with bad video on a cell phone. Noise, dropped connections, and a poor user experience will put consumers off more than anything—anything except, perhaps, worse program and content selection.
With regular TV as bad as it is, do we really want to carry that around with us everywhere? Virtually every survey of cell-phone owners reveals that subscribers don't really want or care about cell-phone video.
But what do consumers know? Nearly every cell-phone operator, handset manufacturer, and chip company, as well as gobs of service and content providers, are hell-bent to build and develop this market. Cell-phone TV is on the way, big time. Maybe we'll learn to like it. One potentially exciting example is the N92 video phone from Nokia (Fig. 1).
HOW TO PUT A TV IN A CELL PHONE
While most of the industry's attention is focused on video today, all sorts of other things are going on with cell phones (see "Next-Generation Cell Phones," p. 44). Yet the biggest challenge is putting video into a handset.
There are two basic ways to deliver video to a handset— through established networks with 2.5G or 3G technology, or by transmitting it on a separate broadcast channel. We've already got limited versions of network-delivered video. In fact, some cellular operators offer it in two flavors— downloads for later viewing and streaming video.
The downloads let viewers store short clips in flash memory for viewing at a more convenient time. These include music videos, short segments from network TV shows, and sports clips. Expect more download-specific varieties soon. As for streaming video, viewers can watch in real time. It takes more on-the-air time, so it uses more minutes, making it potentially the bigger money maker for cellular operators.
Users also will be able to stream video to their cell phone via the Internet with a Slingbox. With this device, users can take TV from off the air or cable and send it over a broadband connection to a laptop or cell phone with Internet access. People desperate for TV will love this interim option until the arrival of real mobile TV.
While you'll continue to see new video offerings from the big cell operators, this mode isn't the future of cellphone TV. If too many subscribers decide to use video at the same time, the downloads and streaming video will quickly overwhelm the capacity of the network, 3G or not. In fact, streaming video could easily bring any cell network to its knees with too many connections.The solution? Establish a new broadcast TV network for cell phones.
Before we get into building a new network, let's discuss why we can't. The first question that comes to mind is why we can't just put a regular TV tuner in a cell phone and watch the available on-the-air channels. Tiny single-chip NTSC tuners have been available and affordable for years. They have three flaws, though.
First, they boost power consumption. Second, they require an impractical antenna. On the low VHF bands where most TV channels are available, antennas must be at least several feet long for good reception. No one will want that on a cell phone. FM radios in cell phones now use the headset cable as the antenna. Maybe this will work for a TV cell phone.
The third and most important flaw is that the newer ATSC digital high-definition system will replace the NTSC video broadcast system in 2009, and ATSC wasn't designed for mobile units. Its complexity and power consumption don't make it a practical alternative. Instead, multiple efforts are attempting to build a broadcast system for videoenabled cell phones. Two competing systems have been developed, and projects are under way to build them out.