Ever Googled the term “robotics”? The
only major company and product
that show up in the top 100 hits
are Microsoft and its Robotics
Studio, a development tool that
leaves a lot to be desired. (Not
one of the dozen or so folks
interviewed for this article
uses it.) In fact, most of the search results
include news, collegiate research, education,
and events.
Yet in 2006, Korea’s Ministry of
Commerce, Industry, and Energy
predicted the global intelligent
robotics market would reap
nearly $90 billion by 2015
(up from a couple billion in
2005) with a growth rate of
57%1. A more recent study
conducted in January by ABI
research (www.abiresearch.com) indicates
that the personal robotics market
(including toy robots like Sony’s Aibo
and task-based robots like the iRobot’s
Roomba) will reach $15 billion by 20152.
Now if that’s not exciting enough for
potential entrepreneurs, two things stand out
as absolute truths when it comes to the technologies
that enable robotics. First, many experts say
that there will indeed be a robot (think humanoid,
not a glorified vacuum) in every home one day. Second,
the missing elephants in the room are already planning
their rendezvous to capture what should amount to billions
in revenues.
That’s right. The Microsofts and Intels of the world are looking
at the future and trying to make sure their lunch hooks are in the kitchen ahead of time, eagerly planning to snatch whatever
morsel becomes available by assimilating robot technologies into
“the collective.”
No mere mortal company can beat the established semiconductor
and software giants in place now. But what if you want to start
a company in robotics with only one exit strategy: join the gang
after it throws some dough in your general direction? What
technologies that empower robotics should you focus on to
get noticed by the big bosses—and not wind up getting
stomped into submission?
Most experts would agree that four viable technologies
and research areas would be good starting
points: cheap sensors, a solid application
programming interface (API), inexpensive
kits, and artificial intelligence.
“Let’s say we have a mobile, safe,
intelligent robot for personal use.
But if the cost is $100,000, would
anyone buy it? The cost of the electromechanical
components used in a robot is still
very expensive [with respect to] sensors, actuators,
etc.,” says Dennis Hong, director of the
Robotics & Mechanisms Laboratory (RoMeLa)
at Virginia Tech.
“We have seen this in the early ’70s with the personal-
computer revolution,” adds Hong. “Unless the
component costs drops down, personal robotics as a
business won’t be able to succeed. iRobot’s Roomba is
probably the only success story I can think of.”
SENSIBLY PRICED SENSORS
Unless you’re working on an R&D team for a major corporation
or university, you probably get nauseous just thinking about the
price of some of the sensors required for many robotics applications,
especially if they require one or more laser-based sensors.
Mobility is one of the primary driving factors.
“Field robots (outdoor robots) need to go over rocks, hills,
bumps, across bushes, etc., for them to be useful (bomb disposal,
search and rescue, scientific exploration). If it cannot reach its goal,
it’s no use. For personal robots (home, indoor use), even though
the environment is more structured, it still needs to climb steps,
etc.,” says Hong.
“The [robotics] industry needs real-world robust sensors that
are affordable,” says Dave Barrett, an Olin College associate professor
of mechanical engineering and director of the school’s
Senior Consulting Program for Engineering (SCOPE).
This comes as no surprise if we look at last year’s DARPA
Urban Challenge. Driverless cars used robotic technologies to
travel 60 miles in six hours or less on an urban course while obeying
traffic regulations and dealing with other traffic and obstacles.
Seven of the 11 finalists used Velodyne HDL-64E light
detection and ranging (LIDAR) sensors, costing around $75,000
each (Fig. 1).
However, sensors like these may be
required if the auto industry is to
move forward with building cars
that drive themselves, saving around
half of the nearly 42,000 lives per
year lost to traffic accidents that are
caused by human error, according to a
statement made at January’s International
Consumer Electronics Show
by Sebastian Thrun, co-leader of
the Stanford University team that
placed second in the 2007 DARPA
Urban Challenge.
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