GPS Finds Its Way
Many analysts expect location-awareness technologies to be ubiquitous within two to five years.
Advertising Age has studied this market and
calls GPS "the new iPod." Riding a rush of new product introductions,
sales of personal-navigation devices in the U.S. tripled in 2006 and are
expected to double again in 2007. The North American GPS market is
growing at about 30% annually, with the GPS Industry Council projecting
sales of the devices will grow to $15 billion in 2006.
Globally, the market can only get bigger. Russia's Global Navigation
Satellite System (Glonass) is expected to go global in 2009, while the
European Union (EU) is spending more than $8 billion to develop its own
Galileo system to compete with GPS. China has plans for a similar system
called Baidu, the Chinese word for the Big Dipper.
"The portable navigation market is experiencing incredible change as
wireless carriers enter the category with an advantage of using their
extensive customer base to rapidly broaden portable navigation to first-time users," says Greg Corley, vice president of worldwide automotive
OEM sales at ATX Group, an independent telematics service provider.
"But there is also a large group of navigation-savvy consumers looking to
upgrade from their first navigation device and wanting more advanced
features than simple turn-by-turn directions."
There are several convergence and location technologies. Assisted-GPS, enhanced observed time difference, enhanced GPS, and other technologies in the cellular network and handset all can locate mobile users.
Many of them, like radio-frequency identification (RFID), can locate and
accurately track people and assets inside buildings and other locations
where traditional GPS often fails.
These technologies have opened up new markets—not only to support
field force and fleet management, logistics, and transportation, but also for
homeland security and disaster preparedness. OEMs and chip manufacturers like Sony, Nokia, LG, Panasonic, and TI are joining the parade currently
led by Garmin and Magellan.
SiRF Technology Holdings, which develops and markets semiconductor
and software products for location-awareness systems using GPS, has
begun working with Motorola to harmonize its location-enabling application-programming interfaces (APIs). This will make it possible for location
applications to be written once and deployed across a wide range of
handsets. SiRF's SiRFstudio platform will work on devices incorporating
Motorola's new Location Services Framework and vice versa.
Another wrinkle is to tie GPS into the Wi-Fi network. This system, developed by Boston-based Skyhook Wireless, uses a database of about 16.5
million public and private Wi-Fi access points with GPS technology from
SiRF in cities across the country to track Wi-Fi-equipped laptops and
smartphones. The Wi-Fi system will find you when GPS can't, even
indoors and between tall buildings, as long as the network is loaded with
appropriate software.
Of course, the major wireless carriers
are doing well with navigation tools. But
there's one potential glitch in the growth
of location-based systems—privacy. A
survey by Harris Interactive shows that
most U.S. mobile phone users worry
about privacy when it comes to next-generation telecommunications technologies, and that includes location-based services (LBS).
Voice Tech Speaks Volumes
After years of hype, voice recognition
is becoming pervasive. The speech
technology market topped $1 billion in
2006, a 100% jump from just two years
earlier. Most of the action is in embedded speed technology devices such as
phones and auto dashboards. Worth
about $125 million in 2006, this market segment is expected to quadruple to
$500 million by 2010.
And there's no shortage of new applications. For example, the Magellan
Maestro 4050 GPS accepts spoken
demands such as "go home" and "nearest restaurant" (). That's a first for
turn-by-turn navigation systems.
Google is seriously interested in the
technology. With its free Google Voice
Local Search, users can dial a number
(800-GOOG-411) to search business listings in specific cities just by following
spoken requests. Not to be left behind,
Yahoo may soon adopt voice technology
to help it sell ads on mobile phones.
Microsoft's Vista operating system
features voice technology. TellMe Networks, which Microsoft is acquiring, has
launched a free service that lets people
get direct listings on their phone by
voice or text messages. Call 800-555TELLME and say "business search" to
find a business listing or search for a
particular category, such as "flower
shops," from any phone. A map comes
with the selected listing. The system
also includes a text and mobile service,
which can be downloaded from a
mobile phone at www.tellme.com or http://m.tellme.com.
Vox, another voice tech vendor, routes calls for TiVo and British Airways. U.S. troops use the company's VoxTec system to translate simple
Iraqi phrases. Much of the growing interest in such technology is a result
of its vastly improved accuracy. And like most technical developments,
voice tech systems have become much more integrated. Systems that
used to require a box will now fit into a device the size of a credit card.
Low-Cost Mobility
Technology isn't cheap, but it's getting cheaper—particularly for handsets and laptops, where leading vendors are competing for market share
in developing countries and other emerging markets where price has
always been an issue. The low-cost trend has pushed General Packet
Radio Service (GPRS) handsets into the hot growth category, where many
analysts believe it will remain for at least the next two to three years.
Most industry analysts are projecting that GPRS cell phones will remain
the largest mobile phone segment into 2010.
Most of these low-end models are going to developing countries. Yet
the nonprofit One Laptop Per Child project, which aims to deliver low-priced laptops to the world's poorest children, has announced plans to sell versions of these models in the U.S. "We can't ignore the United
States. We are looking at it very seriously," says Nicholas Negroponte, the
former head of the MIT Media Lab and founder of the project.
Sony Ericsson will offer low-cost color-screen and music-playing mobile
handsets made in India through manufacturing agreements with Flextronics and Foxconn. The company's production in India could reach 10 million
phones, or about 13% of all Sony Ericsson phones sold in 2006. In addition
to low prices, Sony Ericsson says these phones will offer features targeted
at the Indian market, such as local content and customized keypads.
Agere Systems' TrueNTRY X122 is a low-cost cellular phone platform that
combines chips, software, and a development kit while meeting the GPRS
standard (). It can also deliver CD music, camera/camcorder functions, and Internet access for a bill of materials (BOM) of less than $30.
Laptop manufacturers have found ways to cut costs in key components,
such as displays and data storage, with a stripped down Web browser, simple mechanisms for recharging, and the free Linux operating system. The
result is a $176 Third World Laptop. And, the cost of manufacturing these
laptops could drop to $100 or less by the end of 2008.