Afaltering economy hasn’t
slowed the electronics
industry. According to
many independent market
research organizations and
other sources, most market
sectors will experience
strong growth over the
next five to 10 years.
In fact, what has become a digital universe
is expanding more rapidly than any original
estimates. Updated projections based on
research by IDC suggests that with a compound
annual growth rate of almost 60%,
the digital universe is ballooning at a faster
clip. All told, it’s expected to be nearly 1.8
zettabytes (1800 exabytes) in 2011, a tenfold
increase over five years.
This expansion largely will come as a result
of worldwide shipments of digital cameras,
digital surveillance cameras, and digital TV.
Another aspect of this extraordinary growth is
all of the digital information generated about
the populace on a daily basis, which now surpasses
the amount of digital information individuals
actively create themselves.
WIRELESS EVERYWHERE
Virtually everyone tracking the wireless
market sector says that the transition from
wired to wireless applications is only beginning.
Global mobile phone use passed the 3
billion mark—equivalent to half the world’s
population—in 2007 thanks to the booming
cell-phone markets in China, India, and Africa.
Meanwhile, the introduction of new models
like the upgraded versions of Apple’s iPhone,
which accounted for about 10% of total smartphone
sales in 2007, and Wi-Fi-enabled digital
cameras from Nikon and Panasonic expected
to arrive this spring will push the market even
higher globally.
Popular online applications, such as social
networking, are also going mobile. Nielsen/
NetRatings says that about 45% of active Web
users have already visited these Web sites via
mobile devices.
Adoption of next-generation specifications
is expected to substantially boost the market
for wireless multimedia networking, prompting
growth in excess of 50 million wireless
network devices by 2010, according to Parks
Associates (Fig. 1). Parks predicts annual sales
of wireless multimedia-capable devices, including
home networking gear, personal computers,
and fixed and mobile consumer electronics, will
grow from 2.5 million units in 2006 to nearly
52 million by year-end 2010, due largely to
standardization in the market.
“Multiple factors are driving the move by
both manufacturers and service providers in
embracing wireless connectivity,” says Kurt
Scherf, vice president and principal analyst
with Parks Associates.
“Service providers are looking for greater
ownership in developing home-networking
solutions. Operators need to reduce CAPEX
(capital expenditure) costs in deploying
home-networking equipment. New content
services are on the rise. And, consumers
are invariably a factor in eliminating cables,”
says Scherf. “These are all positive signs
that the IEEE 802.lln and WiMedia solutions—
among the many home-networking
options—will continue to drive growth in new
home-networking applications.”
Infonics Research says worldwide sales of
wireless local-area network (WLAN) equipment,
including independent and dependent access
points and WLAN switches and controllers, hit
$1.9 billion in 2007, up 20% from 2006, driven
by the increased rollout of enterprise WLAN
and an acceleration of upgrades to the IEEE
802.11n standard. Infonics forecasts that the
WLAN market will reach $3.4 billion in 2011.
WiMAX also shows good growth, at least outside
the U.S. The WiMAX Forum is projecting
more than 133 million WiMAX users globally by
2012, a forecast based on the results of an
independently commissioned study published
in April. Data from the study estimates that
approximately 70% of WiMAX users will access
broadband Internet services via mobile and portable
WiMAX devices by 2012.
DEFINING 4G
The biggest transition in wireless will be to
4G, which is only beginning to take shape. The
International Telecommunications Union (ITU)
is expected to release the official definition of
wireless 4G later this year. But In-Stat, another
market research group, expects the primary 4G technologies to include Long Term Evolution
(LTE), Ultra Mobile Broadband (UMB), and IEEE
802.16m WiMAX.
“Companies are extremely uncomfortable
talking about 4G technologies since the ITU has
not defined 4G yet,” says Gemma Tedesco, an
In-Stat analyst. “However, each of the contending
4G technologies has a cheerleader, with
Ericsson touting LTE, Qualcomm preferring
UMB, and Intel toting 802.16m WiMAX.”
Much of the wireless boom is being pushed
through the incredible growth of consumer
electronics (CE). Total U.S. factory-to-dealer
sales of CE topped $160 billion in 2007, an 8%
increase over 2006, according to the Consumer
Electronics Association (CEA), with another
increase in CE revenues in 2008 expected to
top $171 billion.
“CE industry sales have exceeded our
expectations once again, despite a challenging
domestic economic situation,” says Gary
Shapiro, CEA president and CEO. The average
U.S. household spent $1405 on CE products in
the past 12 months, $120 more than the year
before, according to CEA research.
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