InMedica, the medical electronics
division of IMS Research, predicts
exceptional growth in consumer medical
devices. Estimates show manufacturer
revenue reaching more than $5
billion by 2011, partly due to the aging
population and its inherent chronic
medical conditions, in developed countries.
Several market analysts expect
consumers will be able to log medical
readings into a PC or even a smart
phone for remote analysis by medical
professionals.
Security is another strong market
sector, particularly in software and with
the transition to more ubiquitous use
of biometrics, such as fingerprints, iris
scans, and facial recognition. Growing
awareness of the damage caused by
security breaches, together with the
increasing demand for a more mobile
and remote workplace, will keep the
worldwide market for security software
buoyant, according to Gartner, a market
research and consulting firm.
Gartner projects worldwide security
software revenue at $1.5 billion in
2008, an 11.2% increase from 2007.
The market is forecast to surpass
$13.1 billion in 2012. Gartner also
says that in the short term, prioritizing
selection of security technologies
in the current business environment continues to be the top issue for enterprises.
That’s because companies and government
agencies face greater pressure to demonstrate
compliance under various regulatory requirements
and show business value and cost-efficiencies
for security measures.
On another front, rampant identity theft has
pushed the development of biometric techniques
to make transactions more secure.
RNCOS Research predicts the world biometrics
market will jump 6.5 times in 2008 over
2003. An RNCOS report also says the market
of biometrics in point-of-sales equipment and
services will climb to $440 million by 2010, up
from $31 million in 2005.
As a result, Acuity Market Intelligence,
another market research organization, says it’s
beginning to see an interest in biometric technology
development from companies outside
the biometric field. Expanding homeland-security
budgets are another reason why Acuity sees
rapid growth in biometrics.
FIGHTING FOR DOLLARS
Don’t worry too much about the military and
aerospace markets. They’re still huge. It’s the
programs that count. And some of those could
change with evolving world conditions and a different
administration and Congress in the U.S.
beginning early next year.
Also, some military roles may change. While
the Army, Navy, and Marine Corps have been
expanding their fleet of unmanned aerial vehicles
(UAVs), the Air Force is being pressed to become more involved in the war in Iraq, including
the use of pilotless drones. The number of
these aircraft in use by U.S. forces has grown
25-fold since September 11, 2001, to a total of
more than 5000.
There’s also a growing opportunity for satellite
development, which had slowed significantly
during the first half of this decade. According
to the Teal Group, a defense and aerospace
consulting firm, the emerging cycle within the
commercial satellite market will coincide with
an up cycle in the military satellite market, led
by more than 200 new-generation U.S. military
satellites valued at about $120 billion.
Many of these satellites, like so many other
U.S. Department of Defense programs, have
been delayed and are severely over budget. But
Teal says that they will be built and launched
because the requirements for them exist.
What won’t change much is the military’s use
of commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) components
and other hardware in systems. This has proven
to be a very successful way for the Pentagon to
not only cut costs tremendously, but also to get
new and emerging technologies into its inventory
more rapidly.
PERSONAL ROBOTICS
We’re also likely to see more robots in the
home, taking over mostly simple but annoying
tasks like vacuum cleaning. The Machine
Industry Memorial Foundation, a Tokyo-based
think tank, believes that robots could fill the
jobs of 3.5 million people in graying Japan by
2025, helping avert worker shortages as the
country’s population shrinks.
Japan faces a 16% dip in its workforce by
2030 while the number of elderly will mushroom,
according to government estimates,
raising worries about who will do the work in a
country not used to large-scale immigration. The
foundation says robots could fill the gap, ranging
from monitoring the health of older people
to performing basic household tasks.
Several Japanese companies, like Sony,
Hitachi, and NEC through its Personal Robot
Research Center, have developed robots that
can find and identify people (facial recognition),
interact with language (speech recognition),
move around independently, and perform autonomous
activities (Fig. 3).