SHOOT TO KILL (MILITARY PROGRAMS)
Lots of uncertainty swirls around defense spending over the near and long term, with anticipated cutbacks in some major weapons programs. The Government Electronics and Information Technology Association (GEIA), which updates its 10-year forecast of defense electronics spending annually, describes a range of scenarios in its latest report called "alternative futures." The GEIA also talks about "setting bounds of uncertainty."
In the war on terrorism, growing regional conflicts could add significantly to the Department of Defense's budget. But what does this mean for technology spending? To a large extent, that depends on Congress.
Part of the answer might be found in a new Government Accountability Office (GAO) report that warns of soaring DoD weapons-system costs over the next decade, costs it suggests must be brought under control. The Pentagon plans to build 70 major weapons systems at a cost of $1.3 trillion. But the GAO says that doesn't cover cost overruns, which historically add 20% to 50% in expenditures to new programs.
The GAO report notes other examples, including a five-satellite surveillance program called Space-Based Infrared System-High. Originally planned as a $9.9 billion program eight years ago, the GAO expects an increase of $1.2 billion a satellite by actual launch time.
The GEIA thinks that killing programs may become acceptable. Already, two major Army technology programs and four in the other services have been terminated or dramatically revised. And more than 40 smaller programs got the axe since 2001. Several more could be on the chopping block.
Another way to cut military spending, the GEIA believes, is to incorporate new technologies into legacy systems. Also being considered is a shift to joint procurements, which means potential for political battles between the military services. A further solution is to take everything upstairs.
"Over the next decade," says the GEIA, whose study is based on hundreds of interviews with DoD purchasing officials and other analysis, "some procurement power will rise for department-wide [DoD-level] solutions."
But technology may still win, even in the short term, because the Pentagon may have to move beyond the commercial technologies it acquires through commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) buying policies. "Competitive advantage may demand it," says the GEIA.
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