WiMax? Why Not?
Despite some heavy competition from the buildout of new 3G networks, chip makers, mobile handset vendors, and wireless carriers are
rapidly committing to WiMAX, primarily for high-speed Internet access.
For one thing, they like the range it offers. For another, it's a cheaper
alternative to current 3G cellular networks.
Based on the IEEE's 802.16 metropolitan-area network (MAN) standard, WiMAX could compete with entrenched broadband systems from
cable TV and DSL suppliers. While some of the industry's leading developers, such as Intel, believe WiMAX can converge with CE technology
such as digital cameras and handheld games as early as 2009, others
are more skeptical. "We're not likely to see technologies like mobile
WiMAX or indeed, anything else, really take off until the next decade,"
says market analyst Sara Harris of Strategy Analytics.
Speculations aside, the fact is major mobile handset manufacturers have
already got the ball rolling. Nokia and Motorola plan to introduce their first
WiMAX-enabled mobile models in 2008. Samsung is expected to come out
with both a single-mode WiMAX model and a dual-mode WiMAX/1xEV-DO
modem in 2008 as well.
On the carrier side, Sprint has committed to WiMAX and
says it will spend $1 billion this year and another $2 billion
next year to build a WiMAX network in 19 U.S. cities by April
2008. The company plans to test mobile WiMAX networks
in Chicago and the Baltimore/Washington, D.C., areas by
the end of this year, respectively.
Research firm In-Stat expects more than 31 million people in Asia to be using WiMAX broadband wireless Internet
links within five years, even though fewer than 300,000
were using WiMAX at the end of last year. Part of the interest in the technology in that part of the world comes from
the fact that it can be deployed rapidly.
In correspondence with this exponential growth, In-Stat
also projects infrastructure spending for WiMAX by carriers in
the Asian-Pacific region to jump from $400 million in 2006 to
$2.9 billion in five years. India, where WiMAX is beginning to
provide high-speed Internet access and phone service, has
opened up 300 MHz of spectrum dedicated to WiMAX.
The Yankee Group predicts that China's WiMAX market
will reach 8.39 million users in 2011. That's almost seven
times the 1.25 million users the research group forecasts
for 2009, which is the first year of significant
WiMAX development expected in China. Of the 8
million users, portable broadband users are
expected to lead the market.
Fed Goes Green
The environment is another huge issue as the
industry continues to embrace new and emerging
initiatives such as the European Union's Restrictions on Hazardous Substances (RoHS). Now,
there's what seems to be a little known development that requires U.S. federal agencies to procure
only "green" products to the extent possible, and
that includes electronics.
In January, the Bush Administration signed off
on Executive Order 13423, "Strengthening Federal
Environmental, Energy and Transportation Management." It calls for federal government agencies to
acquire more energy-efficient and environmentally
sustainable electronic equipment that is also cost-effective, while maintaining or improving product
quality and performance.
This is both a challenge and an opportunity for
industry companies that do business with the government. Several key federal agencies have already
developed formal programs under the EO, including
NASA, the U.S. Army, the Transportation Security
Agency, the Veterans Administration, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the Departments of Energy and the Interior.
According to the EPA, electronic equipment currently represents only 1% to 2% of the country's waste stream, but it is
growing quickly. The EPA's concern is that many electronic
products contain toxic substances, including lead, mercury,
and cadmium. Another goal of the new EO is to promote the
recycling of obsolete electronic equipment, which may contain many of these substances.
Annually, 95% of electronic products purchased must
meet Electronic Product Environmental Assessment Tool
(EPEAT) standards where applicable. EPEAT is an environmental procurement tool designed to help institutional purchasers in the public and private sectors evaluate, compare,
and select desktop and laptop PCs and monitors based on
their environmental attributes.
According to the EO, Energy Star features must be enabled
on 100% of all computers and monitors. It also requires the
reuse, donation, sale, or recycling of 100% of all electronic
products. Of the 2 billion Energy Star-qualified purchases
since 1992, more than half, or nearly 1.1 billion, have been
consumer electronic products.
Administered by the White House Office of the Federal
Environmental Executive (OFEE), the order consolidates five
prior EOs. From a management perspective, it clarifies and
expands the roles and responsibilities of the White House
Council on Environmental Quality, the Office of the Federal
Environmental Executive, the Office of Management and
Budget (OMB), and federal agencies.
More Megatrends?
In his keynote before this year's Semico Summit,
National Semiconductor CEO Brian Halla described several "megatrends" he said would drive chip demand,
including security and surveillance, ultra-accurate equipment using chip-powered imaging, and analog-enabled
medical applications such as modern ultrasound
devices that project 3D images. He also sees the potential for a room full of cell phones becoming a high-performance network. Underscoring it all, he says, will be a
need for optimized power management to control appropriate voltages and conserve battery life.
Innovation still gets a lot of lip service, mainly from
trade associations that lobby Washington, but it continues
to be the lifeblood of the industry. Indeed, Halla urged the
government to make American innovation leadership a
key policy priority. He suggested elected officials enact legislation and policies that encourage funding for basic
research, ensure the industry has access to a world-class
workforce (including immigration and visa reform), and
provide a competitive investment climate and infrastructure so U.S. companies can continue to compete.