There's hype, and then there's reality. When it comes to leading-edge chips, the chasm between the two is rather wide. Reverse engineers tear these technologies apart for a perspective that often diverges far from commentaries offered by the chipmakers and other industry mavens.
Processors
Last year was full of hype about the impending release of 65-nm devices, particularly in the microprocessor and consumer arenas. Intel shipped its dual-core Yonah Pentium M processors to system builders in the last weeks of 2005, readying them for a product launch at the International Consumer Electronics Show (CES) this month.
AMD is less aggressive in process terms. It's aiming to launch its 65-nm devices during the latter half of this year, but the company also is ramping them up in its 300-mm Fab 36. AMD has been in the dual-core business for a while, so it's under less pressure to push out new parts. And, it's also continuously improving its 90-nm parts.
Speaking of multicore processors, IBM has been rolling out its eight-core Cell processor infrastructure. It should be shipping in volume by the third quarter of this year for the Sony PlayStation 3. Sony's launch date for the PS3 remains vague. The most recent date we've heard is early second quarter in Japan.
Given that IBM also has a three-core processor in Microsoft's Xbox 360 and a dual-core in the upcoming Nintendo Revolution, it appears to have a pretty good lock on the gaming market for the next couple of years (Fig. 1a).
IBM has been pushing the Cell in other areas. It also will be available in Mercury Computer Systems' Dual Blades, supposedly in the second quarter of 2006. This is a 90-nm chip, so its fabrication should commence as scheduled. Debugging it, however, may be another story.
We have another interest in the PS3, since we hear that the Nvidia-designed graphics processor will be from the Sony/Toshiba fab using 65-nm technology. The graphics chip from the PS2 was the first 90-nm chip in volume production, but it looks as though Intel will be the first off the mark in 2006.
Yet it's interesting to note that Matsushita has quietly announced that it will jump straight from 130 nm to 65 nm. The company is shipping DVD controllers from its new 300-mm fab.
ATI also has done well in the electronic gaming market with design wins in the Xbox 360 and the Revolution (Fig. 1b). The latter chip likely will be 90 nm. But ATI reportedly is moving to TSMC's interim 80-nm process next year, with its Radeon X1300CE (R505) and RV580 GPU, possibly launching in the first quarter. Its X1800 was late in getting to market this year, so maybe we should be looking at the second or third quarter for this launch.
Fujitsu is at the forefront as well. Its 90-nm process used for the Transmeta processor had transistor gate lengths of about 40 nm, putting the company halfway to the 65-nm node compared with other fabs (Fig. 2). It rolled out its 65-nm process last fall, but as of yet we have not identified any users contemplating this process for 2006. Sun will work with Fujitsu on its dual-core SPARC64 VI, but that will be 90 nm, evolving to the 65-nm VI+ in 2008.
In the wireless arena, Texas Instruments launched its OMAP2 processor series in 2005. TI likely will migrate to the 65-nm process currently ramping in its Dallas fabs. Qualcomm also has unveiled its first 65-nm chips for cell phones (out of TSMC), including its MSM6800, MSM6280, MSM6260, MSM6255A, and MSM6245 solutions for cdma2000 and WCDMA third-generation phones. We find it typically takes nine to 12 months to actually get the products downstream, so we would expect to see these in phones in the third or fourth quarter of 2006.
FPGAs, PLDs
The majority of products in this segment come from the fabless sector. Xilinx, Altera, Lattice, and Actel all use foundries. Xilinx and Altera are reportedly sampling 65-nm parts out of their foundries (Xilinx with Toshiba and UMC, Altera with TSMC).
Lattice is currently at the 130-nm node with its EC, ECP-DSP, and XP series of products, with the SC 90-nm parts expected in 2006, all from Fujitsu. Even though Lattice extended its deal with Fujitsu to 65 nm, we don't expect products before 2007. Fujitsu's 130-nm process is interesting since it seems to be the only production process using Dow's SiLK spin-on low-k dielectric material.
Actel, the fourth largest FPGA vendor, seems to be targeting the high-reliability and space markets. So while the company isn't predicting any changes in the technology node, we're likely to see more space- and automotive-qualified products coming from it.