The resulting longer life spans, though, will not overburden Social Security and Medicare, claims Kurzweil. “Health technology will become less expensive and people will be healthier. We will rethink Social Security. Eighty years of age will be the new 40. For today, this is an exaggeration, but not in the future. Ultimately, there will be very inexpensive ways to keep people healthy because of information technology.”
STOCKS AND BUSINESS SUCCESS
One type of prediction Kurzweil backed off on making. When asked by an audience member if he could predict what stocks to buy, Kurzweil refrained. Even though he has a software program for selecting stocks, called FATCAT, he admitted it’s not much better than 50%. “Predicting which company will succeed is not predictable,” he told a disappointed audience.
Other technological advances and social situations he does predict are:
• Housing: will become cheaper because 3D printers will print modules used for housing construction.
• Global warming: “Assuming it’s all from human activity, we have plenty of time with these technologies (e.g. solar energy). Within two decades we can eliminate our dependence on fossil fuels that release carbon dioxide and damage the environment at every stage of use. The new technologies will be very environmentally friendly. We will be able to address the use of fossil fuels and all these problems within a couple of decades, and that will be soon enough.”
• Human brain: “We’re developing working modules of brain regions. We now understand the mathematics behind catching a fly ball. The point is to understand how the human mind works to give us a better insight into how to fix the brain and a better means of creating more intelligent machines to make us smarter.”
• Smart phones: Frequently referring to his Blackberry, Kurzweil said, “virtually everyone will have a smart phone in three years and it will be a very powerful computer.” Phones will automatically translate languages so people can talk directly with everyone.
• Eyeglasses: By 2029 they will have tiny computers to remind us of someone’s birthday or show us if there is a Starbucks inside a building. It will flash images onto our retinas to put us in a virtual reality.
• Poverty and population growth: “Information technology has reduced poverty in Asia 70% according to the World Bank.” As countries become prosperous, their population growth declines because they don’t need a lot of children to support the family. Cost of technology “comes down by one half every year and more and more things are becoming information technology based.”
• Democracy: The Internet is very democratizing. “It’s decentralized communication. Gorbechev said this is what happened in Russia. Democracy is fueled by the World Wide Web.”
• Education: It grows exponentially. We need people who are “thoughtful, innovative, willing to take risks, be creative and be entrepreneurial. It is outdated to stuff facts like battle dates into people. We need to train students to think critically and creatively. We need to keep learning.”
• Peace: The Web does encourage peace. We see all the world’s problems, but that is good. “Because when we see them, we tend to do something about it. The world actually is more peaceful.”
• Humanity: “It’s not a utopian vision. There are down sides. The answer is we have to prepare and defend ourselves using the same technologies. Ultimately, as humans we create tools to extend our reach, to change who we are and make it a better world. We are expanding our human potential; we are becoming funnier, we are becoming more loving, we are becoming more creative.”
Kurzweil spoke as part of The Celebrated Speakers Series, presented by the Public Programs Committee of the Emerson Center, which is owned and operated by the Unitarian Universalist Fellowship of Vero Beach, Fla.