According to the hype of the last several years, most of us should already be driving our electric vehicles (EVs) and/or autonomous vehicles (AVs). However, while much progress has been made, the automotive industry isn’t fully there yet. EVs are indeed here now, but self-driving cars—AVs—aren’t totally ready for the consumer. Like anything as complex as EVs and AVs, it always takes time to get it done right. Here’s my current view.
The Current State of EVs
My favorite automotive magazine, Car and Driver, in its July/August issue, had extensive coverage of the EVs available today. They tested 11 models and declared one of them the “EV of the Year.” Summarizing what I learned about the latest crop of EVs, I can say that:
- EVs are still expensive. Most are well over $50K with a few low-end models around $40K.
- EVs are fast. General acceleration from 0 to 60 mph takes 4 to 6 seconds and the quarter mile in 11 to 15 seconds, much faster than the average internal-combustion-engine (ICE) vehicle.
- Virtually all use a lithium-ion battery pack.
- The range in all test cars was over 200 miles and some of Tesla’s over 300 miles. That’s on par with ICE cars for range, thereby presumably ending the range anxiety problem for most consumers.
- Most buyers forget to count in the cost of the charging apparatus needed at home.
On top of that, there’s still a shortage of public charging stations. The number depends on where you live. The few I do see are occupied with vehicles getting their 30 minutes plus charge.
As for the Car and Driver “EV of the Year,” it’s a Ford Mustang Mach-E. Who would have thought?
EVs only accounted for abut 1.8% of the automobile sales in 2020. And by some reports, 70% to 80% of that is Tesla. One prediction estimates 10% EV sales by 2025. The president recently asked for 100% EV sales by 2030. I doubt those figures unless the government takes some drastic action to make it happen.
EVs are a hard transition for most of us to make. Numerous questions remain unanswered, too. Like can I tow my 30-foot RV or boat plus two jet skis with my EV? What happens if I run out of juice on a highway during a trip? Does AAA come out with a giant battery or generator and give you a long charge? How long does an EV battery last? Will it work reliably in winter? Add your question here.
AV Angst
I’ve always considered AVs a bad idea. But what do I know? The worldwide AV industry is said to be worth about $54 billion, with most of that going to R&D. So, AVs are slowly happening as new technologies are discovered and produced.
There are a few hundred or more test AVs driving around the country to evaluate the effectiveness of the latest sensors, artificial-intelligence software, and low-latency processors. After all, AVs are drones or robots, and they need to be ultra-safe as driving is a life-or-death endeavor.
The main rationale for AVs still seems to be to lower the number of driving accidents and make the entire process safer for humans. I suppose it’s a good enough reason to spend all of that effort and money. But driving is safe right now, as millions of us would otherwise not be doing it. AVs may move the needle on the driving meter a few clicks, but people just don’t seem to be ready for them.
Some recent surveys indicate that 43% of U.S. citizens don’t feel safe or comfortable in a driverless vehicle. The few people I’ve talked to who have experienced an AV trip said that it was creepy. Do you trust it or not trust it? Furthermore, most people like driving, or at worst, don’t mind driving.
Anyway, the extensive testing of AVs reveals a number of accidents and even a few deaths. Any driving is a risk—nothing is perfect.
One interesting fact is that the first planned full-scale deployment of AVs is expected to be long-distance trucks. Most trucks generally stay on the straight interstates and can relieve human drivers who become tired, bored, and are forced to continue to get the load to a destination on time. A human driver would only be needed at the destination to back the truck into a narrow loading dock.
Are AV 18-wheelers really a good idea? Basically, yes, as it will save trucking companies a ton of money. But aren’t 18-wheeler accidents already more colossal than auto accidents? Will AV technology really make a difference in safety as well as enrich the transport companies? We will soon find out.
Overcoming AV Challenges
As for progress, some initial AV issues already have been resolved. LiDAR, the main sensor in an AV, was initially horrendously expensive. Now lower-cost units are available. However, some reports indicate that Tesla has dropped LIDAR and radar in favor of improved video. They claim that video cameras work better than the LIDAR-radar mix.
Machine-learning AI also has improved, and faster processors are now affordable to run it. At the same time, advanced driver-assistance systems (ADAS) in current automobiles are expanding and improving each model year. All of this will help the AV effort.
The next big step is to add communications. It will come in some form of vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) and vehicle-to-infrastructure (V2I) radios that will let vehicles talk directly with one another and to sensors and other data sources in the city infrastructure.
Two technologies have been developed for this application: dedicated short-range communications (DSRC) and cellular vehicle to everything (C-V2X). Vehicles typically within a 300-meter range of one another can exchange status information automatically and adjust or adapt accordingly. Both systems use a 20-MHz chunk of the 5.9-GHz band. DSRC uses a Wi-Fi variant called WAVE while C-V2X uses LTE with an expected 5G future.
With a communications capability, vehicles should be much safer. Such technology hasn’t yet been adopted, but it should show up in another year or so. For the system to be effective, though, it will require many vehicles equipped with these radios.
It always takes longer for radically innovative technology to be adopted. In addition to the engineering work to be done, there are social implications, marketing issues, insurance considerations, policy decisions, and government regulations to be hammered out. So, the fully automatic Level 5 AV is still years away, some say decades. We shall see.
I’m still not buying one.
